段晚鎖

1991年至1995年就讀於山西大學數學系數學專業；1997年至2000年在昆明理工大學理學院攻讀應用數學專業碩士學位；2000年3月考入中科院大氣物理研究所攻讀氣象學專業博士學位，於2003年獲得理學博士學位，畢業後留所，被聘為助理研究員，之後於2006年被聘為副研究員，2010年聘為研究員、博士生導師。

中國科學院大氣物理研究所研究員、博士生導師，大氣科學和地球流體力學數值模擬國家重點實驗室副主任。同時兼任大氣科學SCI雜誌“Advance in Atmospheric Sciences”編委、核心期刊《大氣科學》常務編委。曾多次參加重要國際學術會議，並作特邀報告，多次與國外學者共同擔任重要國際學術會議分會召集人等。 ^[2] 

主要從事氣候可預報性理論、方法及其應用的研究。他用先進的數學方法，條件非線性最優擾動（CNOP）研究了嚴重影響我國天氣和氣候的極端氣候事件-----厄爾尼諾-南方濤動（ENSO）事件的可預報性。從理論和實測資料兩方面揭示了最容易發展成極端厄爾尼諾事件的“前期徵兆”；提出了導致厄爾尼諾事件“春季可預報性障礙”（SPB）的一種機制，揭示了導致顯著SPB的初始誤差的特徵；將CNOP方法應用於氣候年代際變化的研究，在年代際尺度上用非線性解釋了ENSO強度的不對稱性；揭示了厄爾尼諾的一個新的非線性特徵，即厄爾尼諾越強，衰減相持續時間越短，從而為ENSO不規則振盪的非線性混沌理論提供了有力證據，為評估和發展模式，進而提高ENSO預報技巧提供了新的思路。在可預報性方法的研究方面，提出了計算一類可預報性優化問題的新算法；與合作者一起，將CNOP方法拓展到了既包含初始擾動又包含模式參數擾動，以致既可用於研究天氣和氣候的第一類可預報性問題，又可用於探討第二類可預報性問題，為可預報性研究提供了一個創新的方法。有關成果被國內外雜誌的文章評價為“CNOP方法在ENSO可預報性研究中的首次應用”，“關於CNOP在ENSO可預報性中應用的結果是令人興奮的”，與國際上其它成果一起被評價為“為提高短期氣候的預報技巧提供了新思路”等等。在國內外核心刊物上共發表論文30餘篇，其中SCI收錄21篇，SCI他引90餘次。

(1)A novel enseble forecasting approach for dealing with combined effect of initial errors and model errors.Mon. Wea. Rev., 2022

(2)Evaluation and Projections of Precipitation Extremes using a Spatial Extremes Framework. Weather and Climate Extremes. 2022

(3)Toward target observations of the meteorological initial state for improving the PM2.5 forecast of a heavy haze event that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022

(4)A new approach to data assimilation for numerical weather forecasting and climate prediction. Journal of Applied Analysis and Computation. 2022

(5)非線性最優擾動方法在熱帶氣旋目標觀測研究和外場試驗中的應用。地球科學進展，2022

(6)Toward an optimal observational array for improving two flavors of El Niño predictions in the whole Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 2022.

(7)The different relationships between ENSO spring Persistence Barrierand Predictability Barrier. Journal of Climate, 2022.

(8)The most sensitive initial error of sea surface height anomaly forecasts and its implication for target observations of mesoscale eddies. J. Physical Oceanography. 2022.

(9)颱風強度模擬的海温目標觀測研究，大氣科學，2022. 通訊作者

(10)Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO.J. Climate, 2021

(11)A precursory signal of the Central Pacific El Niño event: Eastern Pacific cooling mode. J. Climate. 2021

(12)Model errors of an intermediate model and their effects on realistic predictions of El Niño diversity.JGR-Atmosphere, 2021.

(13)Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Generate Initial Perturbations in ENSO Ensemble Forecasts. Weather and Forecasting. 2021. 通訊作者

(14)How does El Nino affect predictability barrier of its accompanied positive Indian Ocean Dipole event? J. Marine Sciences and Engineering. 2021. 通訊作者

(15)The most sensitive initial error modes modulating intensities of CP- and EP- El Niño events. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2021, 通訊作者

(16)Interdecadal change in the relationship between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation and Eastern Australian rainfall in the following autumn. Climate Dynamics. 2021.

(17)The Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean that Can Induce a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for La Niña Events and Their Implication for Targeted Observations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2021.

(18)On the sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting, AOSL, 2021. 通訊作者

(19)Typhoon intensity forecasting based on LSTM using the rolling forecast method, Algorithms，2021

(20)Optimally growing initial errors of El Nino events in the CESM, 2021, Climate Dynamics

(21)Which features of the SST forcing error are most likely to disturb the simulation of tropical cyclone intensity? Adavnces in Atmospheric Sciences, 2021. 通訊作者

(22)Forecast uncertainty of rapid intensification of typhoon Dujuan (201521) induced by uncertainty in the boundary layer. Atmosphere, 2020. 通訊作者

(23)Model forecast error correction based on the Local Dynamical Analog method: an1example application to the ENSO forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model. Geophysical Research Letters. 2020.

(24)Predictable patterns of wintertime surface air temperature in Northern Hemisphere and their predictability sources in SEAS5, Journal of Climate, 2020

(25)Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach. Climate Dynamics, 2020. 通訊作者

(26)On the use of near-neutral backward Lyapunov vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems. Climate Dynamics, 2020

(27) Sensitivity on tendency perturbations of tropical cyclone short-range intensity forecasts generated by WRF. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2020

(28)Errors in current velocity in the low-latitude north Pacific: results from the regional ocean modeling system. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019.通訊作者

(29)近海台風立體協同觀測科學試驗。地球科學進展，2019。

(30)Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for the El Nino predictions: an implication for targeted observation. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2019. 通訊作者

(31)Using a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach to reduce model error effects in ENSO forecasting. Weather and Forecasting, 2019. 通訊作者

(32)始擾動振幅和集合樣本數對CNOPs集合預報的影響。大氣科學，2019，已接收。通訊作者

(33)Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability. Climate Dynamics, 2019. 通訊作者

(34)數值天氣預報、氣候預測的集合預報方法：思考與展望。氣候與環境研究，2019。第一作者

(35)Indian Ocean Dipole-related predictability barriers induced by initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019. 通訊作者

(36)Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics for La Niña predictions. Climate Dynamics, 2019. 通訊作者

(37)The Initial Condition Errors Occurring in the Indian Ocean Temperature That Cause “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. JGR-Ocean, 2019. 通訊作者

(38)Ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone track with orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019. 通訊作者

(39)The role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole events. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018. 通訊作者

(40) Progress in ENSO prediction and predictability study. National Science Review. 2018.

(41)Asymmetry of the predictability limit of the warm ENSO phase. Geophysical Research Letters. 2018.

(42)The application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to typhoon track ensemble forecasts. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018. 通訊作者

(43)Impact of SST anomaly events over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension on the "summer prediction barrier".Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018.

(44)北京地區一次空氣重污染過程的目標觀測分析[J]. 氣候與環境研究. 2018. 通訊作者

(45)"Summer Predictability Barrier" of Indian Ocean Dipole Events and Corresponding Error Growth Dynamics. JGR-Ocean, 2018. 通訊作者

(46)Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: model uncertainty. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018.

(47)Investigating the initial errors that cause predictability barriers for IOD events using CMIP5 model outputs. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018. 通訊作者

(48) Towards optimal observational array for dealing with challenges of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions due to diversities of El Niño. Climate Dynamics, 2018.第一作者

(49)季風與ENSO的選擇性相互作用：年循環和春季預報障礙的影響。大氣科學，2018

(50)粒子濾波同化在厄爾尼諾-南方濤動目標觀測中的應用。大氣科學，2018. 第一作者

(51)Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events.Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 2018. 第一作者

(52)The application of nonlinear local Lyapynov vectors to the Zebiak-Cane model and their performance in ensemble prediction. Clim Dyn. 2017.

(53)耦合模式中北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度年代際可預報性和預報技巧的季節依賴性，地球科學進展，2017.

(54)The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects.Science China: Earth Sciencess, 2017. 通訊作者

(55)On the "spring predictability barrier" for strong El Nino events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2017. 通訊作者

(56)Nonlinearity Modulating Intensities and Spatial Structures of Central Pacific- and Eastern Pacific-El Niño Events. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2017.第一作者

(57)Relationship between optimal precursors for Indian Ocean Dipole events and optimally growing initial errors in its prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2017.

(58)Reducing the prediction uncertainties of high-impact weather and climate events: an overview of studies at LASG. Journal of Meteorological Research. 2017.第一作者

(59)Numerical Analysis of the Mixed 4th-Order Runge-Kutta Scheme of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Model, Adv. Appl. Math. Mech., 2016.

(60)The role of nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2016.第一作者

(61)IOD-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors for IOD predictions from reanalysis data. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2016，通訊作者

(62)Seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension: low in summer and high in winter, JGR-Ocean, 2016,通訊作者

(63)Time-scale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016,通訊作者

(64)Relationship between optimal precursory disturbances and optimally growing initial errors associated with ENSO events: Implications to target observations for ENSO prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 2016.通訊作者

(65)Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions, Climate Dynamics,2016. 通訊作者

(66)Comparison of constant and time-variant optimal forcing approaches in El Niño simulations by using the Zebiak-Cane model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 通訊作者

(67)An approach to generating mutually independent initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts: orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 第一作者

(68)Application of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Targeted Observation Studies of the Atmosphere and Ocean, J. Meteor. Res,. 2015

(69)關於線性奇異向量和條件非線性最優擾動差別的一個註記。氣候與環境研究，2015，通訊作者

(70)The influence of boreal winter extratropical North Pacific Oscillation on Australian spring rainfall, Clim Dyn, 2015, 通訊作者

(71) Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and the "spring predictability barrier" for El Nino predictions. Duan Wansuo, Mu Mu, Chapter 5 in Climate Change edited by Chin-Pei Chang, Michael Ghil, Mojib Latif, and John M. Wallace. World Scientific Series on Asian-Pacific Weather and Climate, 2015.

(72)Comparison of the initial errors most likely to cause a spring predictability barrier for two types of El Nino event. Clim Dyn, 2015, 通訊作者

(73) Interannual Relationship between the Winter Aleutian Low and Rainfall in the Following Summer in South China, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett, 2015,通訊作者

(74) The initial errors that induce a significant “spring predictability barrier” for El Nino events and their implications for target observations:results from an earth system model,Clim Dyn, 2015,第一作者

(75) Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting, National Science Review,2015, 通訊作者

(76) The “winter predictability barrier” for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: results from a fully coupled GCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2014, 通訊作者

(77) Influence of Positive/Negative Indian Ocean Dipole on Pacific ENSO through Indonesian Throughflow: results from Sensitivity Experiments, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2014, 通訊作者

(78) Revealing the most disturbing tendency error of Zebiak-Cane model associated with El Nino predictions by nonlinear forcing singular vector approach，Climate Dynamics，2014，第1作者

(79) Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies，Climate Dynamics，2014，第1作者

(80) Study on the “winter persistence barrier” of Indian Ocean dipole events using observation data and CMIP5 model outputs，Theoretical and Applied Climatology，2014，通訊作者

(81) A SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm for calculating conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation, SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences，2014，第2作者

(82) Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for El Niño events, SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences, 2014，通訊作者

(83) ENSO預測的目標觀測敏感區在熱帶太平洋海温的多模式集合預報中的應用，大氣科學，2014，通訊作者

(84) Time-dependent nonlinear forcing singular vector-type tendency error of the Zebiak-Cane model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014，通訊作者

(85)The combined effect of initial error and model error on ENSO prediction uncertainty generated by the Zebiak-Cane model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014，通訊作者

(86) The spatial patterns of initial errors related to the “winter predictability barrier” of the Indian Ocean dipole, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014，通訊作者

(87) Conditions under which CNOP Sensitivity Is Valid for Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observations，Quarterly J. RMS，2013，通訊作者

(88) 條件非線性最優擾動方法在可預報性研究中的應用，大氣科學，2013，第2作者

(89) 數值天氣預報和氣候預測可預報性研究的若干動力學方法，氣候與環境研究，2013，第1作者

(90) Climate Variability and Predictability at Various Time Scales，Advances in Meteorology，2013，第3作者

(91) Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific，Climate Dynamics，2013，第4作者

(92) Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the inter-annual variability of early summer rainfall over South China，JGR-Atmosphere，2013，第1作者

(93) Simulations of two types of El Nino events by an optimal forcing vector approach，Climate Dynamics，2013，第1作者

(94) The role of nonlinearities associated with air-sea coupling processes in El Nino’s peak-phase locking，Sciences in China (D)，2013，第1作者

(95) Behaviors of nonlinearities modulating El Nino events induced by optimal precursory disturbance，Climate Dynamics，2013，第1作者

(96) The role of constant optimal forcing in correcting forecast model，Sciences in China (D)，2013，通訊作者

(97) Nonlinear forcing singular vector of a two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model，Tellus-A，2013，第1作者

(98) Does model parameter error cause a significant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model，J. Climate，2012，通訊作者

(99)Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions，JGR-Ocean，2012，第3作者

(100) The spring predictability barrier for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism: results from a fully coupled model，Inter. J. Climatology，2012，第1作者

(101) The amplitude-duration relation of the observed El Nino events，Atmos. Oceano. Sci. Lett.，2012，通訊作者

(102) 四個耦合模式ENSO後報試驗的“春季預報障礙”，氣象學報，2012，第3作者

(103)Progresses in the studies of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and predictability for weather and climate in China （2007-2010），Adv. Atmos. Sci.，2012，第5作者

(104) Can the Uncertainties of Madden–Jullian Oscillation Cause a Significant Spring Predictability Barrier for ENSO Events，Acta Meteorologica Sinica.，2012，第2作者

(105) Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability，Adv. Atmos. Sci.，2011，通訊作者

(106) A new strategy for solving a class of nonlinear optimization problems related to weather and climate predictability，Adv. Atmos. Sci.，2010，第1作者

(107) An extension of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach and its applications，Nonlin. Processes Geophys，2010，通訊作者

(108) The “Spring Predictability Barrier” Phenomenon of ENSO Predictions Generated with the FGOALS-g Model，AOSL，2010，通訊作者

(109) Is model parameter error related to spring predictability barrier for El Nino events，Adv. Atmos. Sci，2010，第1作者

(110) Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: applications to stability, sensitivity, and predictability，Science in China (D)，2009，第1作者

(111) Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model，Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society，2009，第2作者

(112)Decisive role of nonlinear temperature advection in El Nino and La Nina amplitude asymmetry，J. Geophysical Research，2009，第1作者

(113) Exploring the initial error that causes a significant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events，J. Geophysical Research，2009，第1作者

(114) 赤道高頻緯向風強迫對ENSO強度的影響，氣候與環境研究，2009，第2作者

(115) Zebiak-Cane數值模式的可預報性分析，氣候與環境研究，2008，第2作者

(116) What kind of initial errors cause the severest prediction uncertainties for El Nino in Zebiak-Cane model，Adv. Atmos. Sci.，2008，通訊作者

(117) Investigating a nonlinear characteristic of ENSO events by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation，Atmospheric Research，2008，第1作者

(118) Season-dependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and ENSO predictability in a theoretical model，Journal of Geophysical Research，2007，第1作者

(119) A kind of initial errors related to “spring predictability barrier“ for El Nino event in Zebiak-Cane model，Geophysical Research Letters，2007，第3作者

(120) Progress in predictability studies in China (2003-2006)，Adv. Atmos. Sci.，2007，第1作者

(121) Investigating decadal variability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation，J. Geophysical. Research，2006，第1作者

(122) Applications of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation in predictability study and sensitivity analysis of weather and climate，Adv. Atmos. Sci.，2006，通訊作者

(123) 用非線性最優化方法研究El Nino可預報性的進展與前瞻，大氣科學，2006，第1作者

(124) The Tangent Linear Model and Adjoint of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and Its Application to the Predictability of ENSO，International Geoscience and Remote Sencing Symposium，2006，第2作者

(125) 數值模式誤差對降水四維變分資料同化及預報的影響，氣候與環境研究，2006，第2作者

(126) Applications of nonlinear optimization method to the numerical studies of atmospheric and oceanic sciences，Appl. Math. Mech.，2005，第1作者

(127) Applications of nonlinear optimization methods to quantifying the numerical model for ENSO，Progress in Natural Sciences，2005，第1作者

(128) Recent advances in predictability studies in China (1999-2002)，Adv. Atmos. Sci.，2004，第2作者

(129) Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation as the optimal precursors for El Nino-Southern Oscillation events，J. Geophy. Res.，2004，第1作者

(130) Chaotic and resonant streamlines in quasi-symmetric flows，Mathematic Applicata，2004，第1作者

國際/國內會議邀請報告

(1) Wansuo Duan, Hui Xu, A study on ENSO asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation, Asia Oceanic Geosciences Society16－20 June, 2008, Busan,Korea. （邀請報告）

(2) Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu, Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications to thestudies of ENSO predictability. 1st PRIMA conference, Sydney,Australia. 6-10 July, 2009. (30 分鐘邀請報告)

(3) Wansuo Duan, Xinchao Liu, Mu Mu, Characteristic of initial errors that cause a significant springpredictability barrier for El Nino events. AOGS 2009, Singapore, 10-15 August,2009. (30分鐘邀請報告)

(4) Wansuo Duan, Revealing a new feature of ENSO events, EGU2010, May 2-7, 2010, Vienna, Austria.(邀請報告)

(5) Wansuo Duan, MuMu, Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications. CIMPAUNESCO THEMATIC SCHOOL, DATAASSIMILATION FOR GEOPHYSICAL FLUIDS, WUHAN (China), May 3 – May 14 , 2010 （60分鐘邀請報告）

(6) 段晚鎖，非線性最優化方法及其在天氣和氣候可預報性研究中的應用，全國流體力學數值方法研討會，2011年8月，北京香山（大會邀請報告）

(7) Wansuo Duan, Wei Chao, The "spring predictabilitybarrier" for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism: results from afully coupled model. EGU 2012 General Assembly，22-27 April 2012，Vienna，Austria.（特邀報告）

(8) Wansuo Duan, Yu Yanshan, Does model parameter error cause asignificant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events in the Zebiak-Canemodel? AOGS-AGU 2012 General Assembly，August 13-17 2012，Singapore （特邀報告）

(9) Wansuo Duan, Wu Yujie, Season-dependent predictability of PDO-related SST anomalies and its error growth dynamics. 中國海洋局海洋二所2013年度學術年會，杭州， 2014年1月7-9日。（特邀報告）

(10) Duan Wansuo，Nonlinear forcing singular vector and related predictability，2015 International Workshop on Control problem with PDE constraints and interface problems. Nanjing Normal University, Xianlin Campus from June 10 to June 12, 2015 （特邀報告）

(11) Wansuo Duan, Tian Ben, Constrasting initial errors that cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO. IGU2015, Moscow, Aug. 17-21, 2015. （邀請報告）

(12) 段晚鎖，ENSO預測的目標觀測敏感區及其在熱帶太平洋海温多模式集合預報中的應用。ENSO和次季節-季節氣候預測技術研討會，成都，9月14-15日, 2015（邀請報告）

(13) 段晚鎖，非線性強迫奇異向量方法及其在ENSO可預報性研究中的應用。中科院大氣所2014-2015年度學術年會。北京，9月24日，2015（邀請報告）

(14) Wansuo Duan, Feng Rong, Mu Mu, Target observation of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events. 全國氣候系統研究學術研討會，中國南京，11月25-27日, 2015（特邀報告）

(15) WansuoDuan, Tian Ben, Chen Lei, Li Xuquan, Comparison of initial errors most likely to cause a significant spring predictability barrier for two types of El Nino events. 西太平洋海洋環流與ENSO及中長期氣候動力學研討會， 青島，12.7-8, 2015.（邀請報告）

(16) 段晚鎖，構造集合預報初始擾動的新方法及其在台風預報研究中的應用，中國氣象科學研究院年會，北京，1.7-8日，2016（特邀報告）

(17) Wansuo Duan, Ben Tian, Xuquan Li, Lei Chen, Sensitive areas for targeting observations associated with predictions of two types of El Nino events. COAA. Beijing, China. 07.27-30, 2016. （邀請報告）

(18) Wansuo Duan, Peng Zhao, The most disturbing tendency error of the Zebiak-Cane model associated with ENSO predictions. AOGS2016, Beijing, China. 08.01-05, 2016. （邀請報告）

(19) 段晚鎖，Target observations for two types of El Nino events and their role in reducing prediction uncertainties, 中國氣象學會2016年度學術年會, 陝西西安，11，2-4，2016（邀請報告）

(20) Wansuo Duan, Ben Tian, Xuquan Li, Target observation for improving initialization of two types of El Nino predictions. PAMS 2017, Jeju Island, South Korea, 4.11-13. 2017.（邀請報告）

(21) Wansuo Duan, An approach to generating mutually independent initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts: orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. International Conference on Random Dynamical Systems, Wuhan, China. 6. 24-27, 2017.（邀請報告）

(22) Wansuo Duan, Ben Tian,Target observations for improving initializations for two types of El Nino events predictions. AOGS2017, Singapore, 8.6-11, 2017.（邀請報告）

(23) 段晚鎖，基於粒子濾波的目標觀測新方法及其在兩類El Nino可預報性研究中的應用。中國氣象學會第34屆年會, 河南鄭州, 9,26-30, 2017。（邀請報告）

(24) Wansuo Duan, Target observations for improving initializations for two types of El Nino events predictions. BIRS workshop: Nonlinear and Stochastic Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction. Banff, Canada, 11.19-24, 2017.（邀請報告）

(25) Wansuo Duan，Tao Lingjiang, An ENSO forecast system based on an intermediate model and optimal forcing vector assimilation. AOGS2018. Hawaii, 6.2-8, 2018.（邀請報告）

(26) Wansuo Duan, Hou Meiyi, An approach to data analysis for predictability: application to two flavors of El Niño. AOGS2019, July 27-August 3, 2019, Singapore.（邀請報告）

(27) Wansuo Duan, Zhou Qian, Mu Mu, The Initial Errors Occurring in the Indian Ocean Temperature that Cause “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.AOGS2019, July 27-August 3, 2019, Singapore.（邀請報告）

(28) Wansuo Duan, A data assimilation approach for dealing with combined effect of kinds of model errors and its application. 第十三屆全國海洋資料同化和數值模擬研討會, 湖南長沙，12. 3-4, 2020. （邀請報告）

(29) 段晚鎖，非線性最優化方法及其在數值天氣預報和氣候預測研究中的應用，第四屆中國系統科學大會，青島， 9. 19-20, 2020，（線上會議）（邀請報告）

第一屆大氣、海洋可預報性研討會

第二屆大氣、海洋可預報性研討會

第三屆大氣、海洋可預報性研討會

第一屆“非線性最優化方法在大氣與海洋科學中的應用”夏季講習班

第二屆“非線性最優化方法在大氣與海洋科學中的應用”夏季講習班

第三屆“非線性最優化方法在大氣與海洋科學中的應用”夏季講習班

1. Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan，Shouhong Wang, Mu Mu, Olivier Talagrand, 在19-24 November 2017於加拿大班夫BIRS workshop，召集分會：Nonlinear and Stochastic Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction.

2. Local co-chair Wansuo Duan, Ruiqiang DingInternational Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop: Dynamics andpredictability of high-impact weather and climate events（國際會議），ICDM2012 workshop, 6-9 July, Kunming, China.

1. Wansuo Duan, Chun-Chieh Wu, Hyun Mee Kim, 在2009年8月AOGS2009國際會議組織可預性分會： AS05： Predictability of weatherand climate: theory and applications.

2. Wansuo Duan，F.X. Le Dmiet, Youmin Tang, Kyun mee Kim, 於2010年在印度召開的AOGS2010國際會議組織可預報性分會。AS12：Predictability of weatherand climate: theory， methodology, and applications.

3. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, 於2010年5月在Vienna召開的EGU2010國際會議組織可預報性分會：NP5.3 Nonlinear optimal mode andits applications in predictability, sensitivity, and stability.

4. Zoltan Toth, Wansuo Duan, S. Vannesti 等，於2011年4月在Vienna召開的EGU2011國際會議組織可預報性分會：NP5.3：Nonlinear instability and predictability.

5. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, S. Vannesti 在22-27 April 2012於Vienna-EGU 2012 GeneralAssembly國際會議組織可預報性分會：NP5.3：Nonlinear optimal mode andrelated predictability, sensitivity, and stability.

6. Wansuo Duan, F. Sellevec, Peter J. Vanllevon，在 13-17August 2012 於新加坡AOGS-AGU 2012 GeneralAssembly 國際會議組織可預性分會：AS39: Predictability ofweather and climate: theory, methodology, and applications.

7. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, S. Vannesti, , 在 April, 2013於奧地利維也納EGU 2013 General Assembly組織可預報性分會：NP5.3: Error growth dynaimics and related predictability for weather and climate.

8. Mu Mu, S. Vannesti, Wansuo Duan, 在28 April-2 May, 2014於奧地利維也納EGU 2014 General Assembly組織可預報性分會：NP5.3: Initial error dynamics and model error physics in weather and climate predictability studies.

9. Shaocheng Xie，Wansuo Duan，Kuan-Man Xu，Masahiro Watanabe等，在28 Jul to 01 Aug, 2014於日本札幌AOGS 2014 General Assembly召集可預報性分會：AS08-13: Predictability Problems and Systematic Errors in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction: Theory, Modeling and Evaluation

10. Mu Mu, S. Vannesti, Wansuo Duan，在12 – 17 April 2015於奧地利維也納EGU 2015 General Assembly召集可預報性分會NP5.3: Initial error dynamics and model error physics in weather and climate predictability studies

11. Wansuo Duan，Stephane Vannitsem，Tieh-Yong Koh，在2-7Aug, 2015於新加坡AOGS 2015 General Assembly召集可預報性分會：AS28：Predictability of Weather and Climate: Theory, Methodology and Applications

12. Olivier Talagrand, S. Vannesti, Wansuo Duan, etc，在17-22 April 2016於奧地利維也納EGU 2015 General Assembly召集可預報性分會NP5.2: Inverse problem of data assimilation, Initial error and model error

13. Zheng Fei, Noel Keenlyside, Wansuo Duan, Stephane Vanisstem, et al., 於1-5 August 2016在AOGS2016 召集可預報性分會：OS08-AS16: Advances In Data Assimilation And Ensemble Forecast: Applications To Studies And Predictability Of Atmosphere-ocean Variability

14. Zhang Ronghua, Wang Dongxiao, Wansuo Duan , 在27--30 July 2016全球華人大會大氣海洋科學大會暨第七屆COAA國際大氣和海洋氣候變化會議召集分會：Session Title： Ocean process and modelling

15. Olivier Talagrand, Stéphane Vannitsem, Wansuo Duan, Amos Lawless, Matthew Martin, Alberto Carrassi, Javier Amezcua, 在24–29 April 2017 於奧地利維也納EGU 2017 General Assembly召集分會: NP5.1: Inverse Problems, Data Assimilation and Error Dynamics.

16. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Stéphane Vannitsem. 在24–29 April 2017 於奧地利維也納EGU 2017 General Assembly召集分會: NP5.2: Initial error dynamics and model error physics in predictability studies of weather and climate.

17. WanSuo Duan, Youmin Tang, Mu Mu, Zhijin Li. 在4-8 June 2017於加拿大多倫多CMOS 2017 Congress召集分會：1704061 Data Assimilation, Ensemble Prediction, and Intrinsic Predictability.

18. Craig H. Bishop, Weijia Kuang, Wansuo Duan, Andrew Moore等，在27 August-1 September 2017南非開普敦IAMAS-2017會議召集分會：JA3 - Frontier Challenges In Data Assimilation And Ensemble Forecasting ForThe Atmosphere, Ocean And Solid Earth (IAGA, IAMAS, IAPSO) .

19. Stéphane Vannitsem，Wansuo Duan，Noel Keenlyside，Fei Zheng，在2-8 June 2018於Hawaii AOGS2018 General Assembly召集分會：AS36 - Ocean-atmosphere Coupling: Dynamics, Assimilation, and Predictability.

20. Olivier Talagrand, Javier Amezcua, Alberto Carrassi, Amos Lawless, Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Stéphane Vannitsem. 在7–12 April 2019 於奧地利維也納EGU 2019 General Assembly召集分會: NP5.1: Data assimilation, Predictability, Error Identification and Uncertainty Quantification in Geosciences.

21. Mu Mu, Alexander Feigin, Wansuo Duan, Jürgen Kurths, Stéphane Vannitsem在4-8 May, 2020，EGU2020 General Assembly 召集可預報性分會：NP5.2 New approaches to predictions and predictability estimation for geophysical fluid. On-line

22. Vena Pearl Bongolan, Wansuo Duan, and Ramsundram Narayanan. AOGS2021: IG02 Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk. Virtual meeting from Singapore.1-6 August 2021

1. 國家自然科學基金-重點項目

項目名稱：非線性強迫奇異向量-集合預報方法及其在厄爾尼諾和颱風可預報性研究中的應用

項目編號：41930971

執行年限：2020.01-2024.12

2. 國家傑出青年科學基金

項目名稱：厄爾尼諾-南方濤動可預報性的非線性誤差增長理論及其應用研究

項目編號：41525017

執行年限：2016.01-2020.12

3. 國家自然科學基金-面上項目

項目名稱1：北太平洋海温“夏季可預報性障礙”現象及其誤差增長動力學研究

項目編號：41376018

執行年限：2014.01-2017.12

項目名稱2：非線性強迫奇異向量及其在 ENSO 第二類可預報性研究中的應用

項目編號：41176013

執行年限：2012.01-2015.12

4. 國家自然科學基金-青年基金

項目名稱：用條件非線性最優擾動研究 ENSO 可預報性的年代際變化問題

項目編號：40505013

執行年限：2006.01-2008.12

5. 國家重點基礎研究發展計劃-課題

課題名稱1：颱風目標觀測研究

課題編號：2018YFC1506402

執行年限: 2018.12-2021.12

課題名稱2：東亞季風氣候年際-年代際變率及人類活動影響的模擬及預測研究

課題編號：2012CB955202

執行年限: 2012.0 1-2016. 12

6. 中科院知識創新工程重要方向項目

項目名稱：ENSO可預報性年代際變化若干關鍵問題的研究

項目編號：KZCX2-YW-QN203

執行年限：2010.01-2012.12 ^[3] 

曾於2009年獲“中國科學院盧嘉錫青年人才獎”；2006年獲教育部、國務院學位委員會“全國百篇優秀博士論文”獎和中國氣象學會“全國優秀青年氣象科技工作者獎”；2005年獲“中國科學院優秀博士論文獎”，2015年度國家傑出青年科學基金資助等。 ^[1]