劉玉潔

（1）深入揭示了農田生態系統中與全球變化密切相關的機理過程，研製並改進了大尺度作物模型生物物理過程以及人為管理措施參數化方案，實現作物模型升尺度模擬，顯著提高了模型預測精度。（2）構建了農業生產適應氣候變化的多尺度風險管理模型，通過集合概率預測開展了氣候變化對我國糧食生產和水分利用的影響評估，為降低氣候變化影響預測的不確定性開拓了新思路。（3）從地理學視角，基於多源長序列觀測數據，揭示了主要作物物候和產量多尺度時間變化趨勢及空間分異特徵，闡明瞭其對温度、降水、輻射等多要素變化的響應機理；定量區分了氣候變化和人為管理措施對作物物候和產量變化的分別影響和綜合效應，為全球農業物候變化及歸因研究提供了方法支撐。（4）基於營養膳食需求和可持續發展目標，預估了未來全球糧食供給風險及需求的差異性，提出糧食主產區適應全球變化不利影響的優化管理措施、為區域保障糧食安全提供了理論和決策依據。　

[1] Liu Yujie*, Zhang Jie, Pan Tao, Ge Quansheng. Assessing the adaptability of maize phenology to climate change: the role of anthropogenic–management practices. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021 (293): 112874.

[2] Chen Jie, Liu Yujie *, Zhou Weimo, Zhang Jie, Pan Tao. Effects of climate change and crop management on changes in rice phenology in China from 1981 to 2010[J]. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 2021: 11300.

[3] Zhou Weimo, Liu Yujie *, Syed Tahir Ata-Ul-Karim, Ge Quansheng. Spatial difference of climate change effects on wheat nutritional quality in China. Environmental Research Letters, 2021.

[4] Zhang Jie, Liu Yujie*, Dai Liang. Agricultural practice contributes more to changes in soybean yield than climate change from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 2021

[5] Tan Qinghua, Liu Yujie*, Dai Liang. Shortened key growth periods of soybean observed in China under climate change. Scientific Reports. 2021. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-87618-9.

[6] Liu Yujie*, Chen Jie, Liu Yanhua, Zhang Yuhu, Ge Quansheng, Philippe Ciais, Josep Penuelas. Global socioeconomic risk of precipitation extremes under climate change[J]. Earth's Future, 2020 (7): e2019EF001331.

[7] Liu Yujie*, Dai Liang. Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management measures on soybean phenology in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020: 121271.

[8] Liu Yujie*, Zhang Jie, Qin Ya. How global warming alter future maize yield and water use efficiency in China[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, 160:120229.

[9] Liu Yujie*, Chen Jie. Future global socioeconomic risk to droughts based on estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a changing climate[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2020:142159.

[10] Liu Yujie*, Zhang Jie, Ge Quansheng. The optimization of wheat yield through adaptive crop management in a changing climate: evidence from China[J]. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 2020.